Dendroindication of drought in Rogatica region (eastern Bosnia)

Abstract

The aim of this study was to investigate the possibility of using the dendrochronological method in drought prediction in eastern Bosnia. As an indicator of drought, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) was used. In the wider area of Rogatica (eastern Bosnia), 11 core samples from trees were taken. The best connection between the width of tree rings and drought was shown by the sample of a 67-year-old European silver fir (Abies alba) from the mountain Boksanica. Removal of the biological trend (standardization) was performed by the autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) method. Calculations showed that precipitation, i.e. drought in the summer months, is crucial for radial increment of the sample. The obtained results of our research have been confirmed in examples in the region and further.