Comparative Analysis of Univariate and Multivariate Models for Solar Irradiance Forecasting

Abstract

The focus of this study is to analyse and compare the predictive capabilities of univariate and multivariate methods of forecasting the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) for an hour ahead. The forecasting problem is addressed using supervised machine learning methods. In order to simplify the model, a feature selection algorithm is used to identify the highly correlated features. The forecasting is performed by utilizing popular machine learning algorithms viz., random forest (RF), K-nearest neighbors regression (KNN), support vector machine (SVM) and artificial neural networks (ANN). The paper evaluates and contrasts the effectiveness of these models for this application. Additionally, the study examines how the forecasting models' performance varies throughout the year and across seasons.