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Forest fires in Portugal - case study, 18 june 2017

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2019
M22_2015_ThSci2.pdf (225.8Kb)
Authors
Radovanović, Milan M.
Vyklyuk, Yaroslav
Stevančević, Milan T.
Milenković, Milan Đ
Jakovljević, Dejana M.
Petrović, Marko D.
Malinović-Milićević, Slavica B.
Vuković, Natalia
Vujko, Aleksandra Đ.
Sydor
Yamashkin, Anatoliy
Sydor, Petro
Vuković, Darko B.
Škoda, Miroslav
Article (Published version)
Metadata
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Abstract
Forest fires that occurred in Portugal on June 18, 2017, caused several tens of human casualties. The cause of their emergence, as well as many others that occurred in western Europe at the same time remained unknown. Taking into account consequences, including loss of human lives and endangerment of ecosystem sustainability, discovering of the forest fires causes is the very significant question. The heliocentric hypothesis has indirectly been tested, according to which charged particles are a possible cause of forest fires. We must point out that it was not possible to verify whether in this specific case the particles by reaching the ground and burning the plant mass create the initial phase of the formation of the flame. Therefore, we have tried to determine whether during the critical period, i. e. from June 15-19 there is a certain statistical connection between certain parameters of the solar wind and meteorological elements. Based on the hourly values of the charged particles ...flow, a correlation analysis was performed with hourly values of individual meteorological elements including time lag at Monte Real station. The application of the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System models has shown that there is a high degree of connection between the flow of protons and the analyzed meteorological elements in Portugal. However, further verification of this hypothesis requires further laboratory testing.

Keywords:
forest fires / heliocentric hypothesis / ANFIS models / Portugal
Source:
Thermal Science, 2019, 23, 1, 73-86
Publisher:
  • Belgrade : Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences
Funding / projects:
  • Geography of Serbia (RS-47007)

DOI: 10.2298/TSCI180803251R

ISSN: 0354-9836 (Print); 2334-7163 (Online)

WoS: 000460088000008

Scopus: 2-s2.0-85057110798
[ Google Scholar ]
7
1
Handle
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13409
URI
https://dais.sanu.ac.rs/123456789/13409
Collections
  • ГИ САНУ - Радови истраживача / GI SASA - Researchers' publications
Institution/Community
Географски институт „Јован Цвијић“ САНУ / Geographical Institute Jovan Cvijić SASA
TY  - JOUR
AU  - Radovanović, Milan M.
AU  - Vyklyuk, Yaroslav
AU  - Stevančević, Milan T.
AU  - Milenković, Milan Đ
AU  - Jakovljević, Dejana M.
AU  - Petrović, Marko D.
AU  - Malinović-Milićević, Slavica B.
AU  - Vuković, Natalia
AU  - Vujko, Aleksandra Đ.
AU  - Sydor
AU  - Yamashkin, Anatoliy
AU  - Sydor, Petro
AU  - Vuković, Darko B.
AU  - Škoda, Miroslav
PY  - 2019
UR  - https://dais.sanu.ac.rs/123456789/13409
AB  - Forest fires that occurred in Portugal on June 18, 2017, caused several tens of
human casualties. The cause of their emergence, as well as many others that occurred in western Europe at the same time remained unknown. Taking into account consequences, including loss of human lives and endangerment of ecosystem sustainability, discovering of the forest fires causes is the very significant question. The heliocentric hypothesis has indirectly been tested, according to which charged particles are a possible cause of forest fires. We must point out that it was not possible to verify whether in this specific case the particles by reaching the ground and burning the plant mass create the initial phase of the formation of the flame. Therefore, we have tried to determine whether during the critical period, i. e. from June 15-19 there is a certain statistical connection between certain parameters of the solar wind and meteorological elements. Based on the hourly values of the charged particles flow, a correlation analysis was performed with hourly values of individual meteorological elements including time lag at Monte Real station. The application of the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System models has shown that there is a high degree of connection between the flow of protons and the analyzed meteorological elements in Portugal. However, further verification of this hypothesis requires further laboratory testing.
PB  - Belgrade :  Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences
T2  - Thermal Science
T1  - Forest fires in Portugal - case study, 18 june 2017
SP  - 73
EP  - 86
VL  - 23
IS  - 1
DO  - 10.2298/TSCI180803251R
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13409
ER  - 
@article{
author = "Radovanović, Milan M. and Vyklyuk, Yaroslav and Stevančević, Milan T. and Milenković, Milan Đ and Jakovljević, Dejana M. and Petrović, Marko D. and Malinović-Milićević, Slavica B. and Vuković, Natalia and Vujko, Aleksandra Đ. and Sydor and Yamashkin, Anatoliy and Sydor, Petro and Vuković, Darko B. and Škoda, Miroslav",
year = "2019",
abstract = "Forest fires that occurred in Portugal on June 18, 2017, caused several tens of
human casualties. The cause of their emergence, as well as many others that occurred in western Europe at the same time remained unknown. Taking into account consequences, including loss of human lives and endangerment of ecosystem sustainability, discovering of the forest fires causes is the very significant question. The heliocentric hypothesis has indirectly been tested, according to which charged particles are a possible cause of forest fires. We must point out that it was not possible to verify whether in this specific case the particles by reaching the ground and burning the plant mass create the initial phase of the formation of the flame. Therefore, we have tried to determine whether during the critical period, i. e. from June 15-19 there is a certain statistical connection between certain parameters of the solar wind and meteorological elements. Based on the hourly values of the charged particles flow, a correlation analysis was performed with hourly values of individual meteorological elements including time lag at Monte Real station. The application of the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System models has shown that there is a high degree of connection between the flow of protons and the analyzed meteorological elements in Portugal. However, further verification of this hypothesis requires further laboratory testing.",
publisher = "Belgrade :  Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences",
journal = "Thermal Science",
title = "Forest fires in Portugal - case study, 18 june 2017",
pages = "73-86",
volume = "23",
number = "1",
doi = "10.2298/TSCI180803251R",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13409"
}
Radovanović, M. M., Vyklyuk, Y., Stevančević, M. T., Milenković, M. Đ., Jakovljević, D. M., Petrović, M. D., Malinović-Milićević, S. B., Vuković, N., Vujko, A. Đ., Sydor, Yamashkin, A., Sydor, P., Vuković, D. B.,& Škoda, M.. (2019). Forest fires in Portugal - case study, 18 june 2017. in Thermal Science
Belgrade :  Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences., 23(1), 73-86.
https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI180803251R
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13409
Radovanović MM, Vyklyuk Y, Stevančević MT, Milenković MĐ, Jakovljević DM, Petrović MD, Malinović-Milićević SB, Vuković N, Vujko AĐ, Sydor, Yamashkin A, Sydor P, Vuković DB, Škoda M. Forest fires in Portugal - case study, 18 june 2017. in Thermal Science. 2019;23(1):73-86.
doi:10.2298/TSCI180803251R
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13409 .
Radovanović, Milan M., Vyklyuk, Yaroslav, Stevančević, Milan T., Milenković, Milan Đ, Jakovljević, Dejana M., Petrović, Marko D., Malinović-Milićević, Slavica B., Vuković, Natalia, Vujko, Aleksandra Đ., Sydor, Yamashkin, Anatoliy, Sydor, Petro, Vuković, Darko B., Škoda, Miroslav, "Forest fires in Portugal - case study, 18 june 2017" in Thermal Science, 23, no. 1 (2019):73-86,
https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI180803251R .,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13409 .

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