TY  - JOUR
AU  - Vyklyuk, Yaroslav
AU  - Radovanović, Milan. M.
AU  - Stanojević, Gorica B.
AU  - Milovanović, Boško
AU  - Taras, Leko
AU  - Milenković, Milan
AU  - Petrović, Marko
AU  - Yamashkin, Anatoly A.
AU  - Milanović Pešić, Ana
AU  - Jakovljević, Dejana
AU  - Malinović Milićević, Slavica
PY  - 2018
UR  - https://dais.sanu.ac.rs/123456789/13855
AB  - This research presents improved results on modelling relationship between the flow of charged particles that are coming from the Sun and hurricanes. For establishing eventual link, the methods of Big Data, such as Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Parallel Calculations, Fractal analysis etc., are applied. The parameters of solar activity were used as model input data, while data on hurricane phenomenon were used as model output, and both of these on daily level for May–October in period 1999–2013. The nonlinear R/S analysis was conducted to determine the degree of randomness for time series of input and output parameters. The time lag of 0–10 days was taken into account in the research. It led to growing input parameters up to 99. The problem of finding hidden dependencies in large databases refers to the problems of Data Mining. The ANFIS with Sugeno function of zero order was selected as a method of output fuzzy system. The “brute-force attack” method was used to find the most significant factors from all data. To do this, more than 3 million ANFIS models were tested on Computer Cluster using Parallel Calculation. Within the experiments, eight input factors were calculated as a base for building the final ANFIS models. These models can predict up to 39% of the hurricanes. This means, if causal link exists, approximately every third penetration of charged particles from coronary hole(s) or/and from the energetic region(s) toward the Earth precede the hurricanes.
PB  - Netherlands : Elsevier Ltd.
T2  - Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
T1  - Hurricane genesis modeling based on the relationship between solar activity and hurricanes II
SP  - 159
EP  - 164
VL  - 180
DO  - 10.1016/j.jastp.2017.09.008
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13855
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Vyklyuk, Yaroslav and Radovanović, Milan. M. and Stanojević, Gorica B. and Milovanović, Boško and Taras, Leko and Milenković, Milan and Petrović, Marko and Yamashkin, Anatoly A. and Milanović Pešić, Ana and Jakovljević, Dejana and Malinović Milićević, Slavica",
year = "2018",
abstract = "This research presents improved results on modelling relationship between the flow of charged particles that are coming from the Sun and hurricanes. For establishing eventual link, the methods of Big Data, such as Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Parallel Calculations, Fractal analysis etc., are applied. The parameters of solar activity were used as model input data, while data on hurricane phenomenon were used as model output, and both of these on daily level for May–October in period 1999–2013. The nonlinear R/S analysis was conducted to determine the degree of randomness for time series of input and output parameters. The time lag of 0–10 days was taken into account in the research. It led to growing input parameters up to 99. The problem of finding hidden dependencies in large databases refers to the problems of Data Mining. The ANFIS with Sugeno function of zero order was selected as a method of output fuzzy system. The “brute-force attack” method was used to find the most significant factors from all data. To do this, more than 3 million ANFIS models were tested on Computer Cluster using Parallel Calculation. Within the experiments, eight input factors were calculated as a base for building the final ANFIS models. These models can predict up to 39% of the hurricanes. This means, if causal link exists, approximately every third penetration of charged particles from coronary hole(s) or/and from the energetic region(s) toward the Earth precede the hurricanes.",
publisher = "Netherlands : Elsevier Ltd.",
journal = "Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics",
title = "Hurricane genesis modeling based on the relationship between solar activity and hurricanes II",
pages = "159-164",
volume = "180",
doi = "10.1016/j.jastp.2017.09.008",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13855"
}

Vyklyuk, Y., Radovanović, Milan. M., Stanojević, G. B., Milovanović, B., Taras, L., Milenković, M., Petrović, M., Yamashkin, A. A., Milanović Pešić, A., Jakovljević, D.,& Malinović Milićević, S.. (2018). Hurricane genesis modeling based on the relationship between solar activity and hurricanes II. in Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
Netherlands : Elsevier Ltd.., 180, 159-164.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2017.09.008
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13855

Vyklyuk Y, Radovanović MM, Stanojević GB, Milovanović B, Taras L, Milenković M, Petrović M, Yamashkin AA, Milanović Pešić A, Jakovljević D, Malinović Milićević S. Hurricane genesis modeling based on the relationship between solar activity and hurricanes II. in Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. 2018;180:159-164.
doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2017.09.008
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13855 .

Vyklyuk, Yaroslav, Radovanović, Milan. M., Stanojević, Gorica B., Milovanović, Boško, Taras, Leko, Milenković, Milan, Petrović, Marko, Yamashkin, Anatoly A., Milanović Pešić, Ana, Jakovljević, Dejana, Malinović Milićević, Slavica, "Hurricane genesis modeling based on the relationship between solar activity and hurricanes II" in Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 180 (2018):159-164,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2017.09.008 .,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13855 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Milenković, Milan
AU  - Yamashkin, Anatoly A.
AU  - Ducić, Vladan
AU  - Babić, Violeta
AU  - Govedar, Zoran
PY  - 2017
UR  - https://dais.sanu.ac.rs/123456789/12576
AB  - The data on forest fires in Portugal in the period 1980-2015 were used in the research: the annual number of forest fires, the annual burned area and the average burned area per fire. Increasing trend of the annual number of forest fires (statistically significant at p  lt = 0.01), nonsignificant increasing trend of the annual burned area and decreasing trend of the average burned area per fire (statistically significant at p  lt = 0.01) were recorded. Portugal is the most endangered country by forest fires in comparison with the other European countries. During the research period, fires in Portugal covered 23.6% of the total burned area in five the most affected European countries (Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Greece). In the research of the connection between forest fires and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Pearson correlation coefficient (R) was used. Monthly, seasonal and annual values of the AMO index were used in calculations. All R values recorded for the annual number of fires were positive and statistically significant at p  lt = 0.01. The highest values were recorded for August (0.543) and for summer (0.525). With the annual burned area all R values were also positive and the highest one on the seasonal level was for summer (0.359). With the average burned area per fire all R values were negative (-0.428 was recorded for winter). The results of the research could be applied in the fire danger forecast for periods of several months. Other climate indices should also be considered in future research.
PB  - Srpska akademija nauka i umetnosti SANU - Geografski institut 'Jovan Cvijić', Beograd
T2  - Zbornik radova Geografskog instituta "Jovan Cvijić", SANU
T1  - Forest fires in Portugal - the connection with the atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO)
SP  - 27
EP  - 35
VL  - 67
IS  - 1
DO  - 10.2298/IJGI1701027M
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_12576
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Milenković, Milan and Yamashkin, Anatoly A. and Ducić, Vladan and Babić, Violeta and Govedar, Zoran",
year = "2017",
abstract = "The data on forest fires in Portugal in the period 1980-2015 were used in the research: the annual number of forest fires, the annual burned area and the average burned area per fire. Increasing trend of the annual number of forest fires (statistically significant at p  lt = 0.01), nonsignificant increasing trend of the annual burned area and decreasing trend of the average burned area per fire (statistically significant at p  lt = 0.01) were recorded. Portugal is the most endangered country by forest fires in comparison with the other European countries. During the research period, fires in Portugal covered 23.6% of the total burned area in five the most affected European countries (Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Greece). In the research of the connection between forest fires and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Pearson correlation coefficient (R) was used. Monthly, seasonal and annual values of the AMO index were used in calculations. All R values recorded for the annual number of fires were positive and statistically significant at p  lt = 0.01. The highest values were recorded for August (0.543) and for summer (0.525). With the annual burned area all R values were also positive and the highest one on the seasonal level was for summer (0.359). With the average burned area per fire all R values were negative (-0.428 was recorded for winter). The results of the research could be applied in the fire danger forecast for periods of several months. Other climate indices should also be considered in future research.",
publisher = "Srpska akademija nauka i umetnosti SANU - Geografski institut 'Jovan Cvijić', Beograd",
journal = "Zbornik radova Geografskog instituta "Jovan Cvijić", SANU",
title = "Forest fires in Portugal - the connection with the atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO)",
pages = "27-35",
volume = "67",
number = "1",
doi = "10.2298/IJGI1701027M",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_12576"
}

Milenković, M., Yamashkin, A. A., Ducić, V., Babić, V.,& Govedar, Z.. (2017). Forest fires in Portugal - the connection with the atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). in Zbornik radova Geografskog instituta "Jovan Cvijić", SANU
Srpska akademija nauka i umetnosti SANU - Geografski institut 'Jovan Cvijić', Beograd., 67(1), 27-35.
https://doi.org/10.2298/IJGI1701027M
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_12576

Milenković M, Yamashkin AA, Ducić V, Babić V, Govedar Z. Forest fires in Portugal - the connection with the atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). in Zbornik radova Geografskog instituta "Jovan Cvijić", SANU. 2017;67(1):27-35.
doi:10.2298/IJGI1701027M
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_12576 .

Milenković, Milan, Yamashkin, Anatoly A., Ducić, Vladan, Babić, Violeta, Govedar, Zoran, "Forest fires in Portugal - the connection with the atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO)" in Zbornik radova Geografskog instituta "Jovan Cvijić", SANU, 67, no. 1 (2017):27-35,
https://doi.org/10.2298/IJGI1701027M .,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_12576 .