TY  - JOUR
AU  - Milanović Pešić, Ana
AU  - Jojić Glavonjić, Tamara
AU  - Denda, Stefan
AU  - Jakovljević, Dejana
PY  - 2023
UR  - https://dais.sanu.ac.rs/123456789/15279
AB  - This study aims to present the potential for sustainable tourism development on Vlasina Lake, which is, along with its surroundings, declared as a Ramsar site, Natural Asset of Exceptional Importance, IBA, IPA, PBA and Emerald area. A survey conducted among the residents indicated that they expressed positive attitudes towards sustainable tourism development, even though a small percentage of them are employed in tourism. Considering the lake as the most valuable part of this area, this study emphasized water quality assessment as the necessary condition for sustainable tourism development. Water quality indices (SWQI, CWQI and WPI) were used for water quality assessment for the period 2013–2022. Based on SWQI, Vlasina Lake has a good to excellent water quality and, according to WPI, has clean water suitable for tourism and recreation. The CWQI for overall water quality ranged from marginal to good. It is the highest for recreation, but it is based on only one parameter (pH), which is the limitation of this methodology. Based on field research, survey, water quality assessment and previous studies, it is concluded that this area has favorable conditions for developing various types of tourism, which could contribute to the future development of this undeveloped and unpopulated area.
PB  - Basel : MDPI
T2  - Sustainability
T1  - Sustainable Tourism Development and Ramsar Sites in Serbia: Exploring Residents’ Attitudes and Water Quality Assessment in the Vlasina Protected Area
SP  - 15391
VL  - 15
IS  - 21
DO  - 10.3390/su152115391
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_15279
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Milanović Pešić, Ana and Jojić Glavonjić, Tamara and Denda, Stefan and Jakovljević, Dejana",
year = "2023",
abstract = "This study aims to present the potential for sustainable tourism development on Vlasina Lake, which is, along with its surroundings, declared as a Ramsar site, Natural Asset of Exceptional Importance, IBA, IPA, PBA and Emerald area. A survey conducted among the residents indicated that they expressed positive attitudes towards sustainable tourism development, even though a small percentage of them are employed in tourism. Considering the lake as the most valuable part of this area, this study emphasized water quality assessment as the necessary condition for sustainable tourism development. Water quality indices (SWQI, CWQI and WPI) were used for water quality assessment for the period 2013–2022. Based on SWQI, Vlasina Lake has a good to excellent water quality and, according to WPI, has clean water suitable for tourism and recreation. The CWQI for overall water quality ranged from marginal to good. It is the highest for recreation, but it is based on only one parameter (pH), which is the limitation of this methodology. Based on field research, survey, water quality assessment and previous studies, it is concluded that this area has favorable conditions for developing various types of tourism, which could contribute to the future development of this undeveloped and unpopulated area.",
publisher = "Basel : MDPI",
journal = "Sustainability",
title = "Sustainable Tourism Development and Ramsar Sites in Serbia: Exploring Residents’ Attitudes and Water Quality Assessment in the Vlasina Protected Area",
pages = "15391",
volume = "15",
number = "21",
doi = "10.3390/su152115391",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_15279"
}

Milanović Pešić, A., Jojić Glavonjić, T., Denda, S.,& Jakovljević, D.. (2023). Sustainable Tourism Development and Ramsar Sites in Serbia: Exploring Residents’ Attitudes and Water Quality Assessment in the Vlasina Protected Area. in Sustainability
Basel : MDPI., 15(21), 15391.
https://doi.org/10.3390/su152115391
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_15279

Milanović Pešić A, Jojić Glavonjić T, Denda S, Jakovljević D. Sustainable Tourism Development and Ramsar Sites in Serbia: Exploring Residents’ Attitudes and Water Quality Assessment in the Vlasina Protected Area. in Sustainability. 2023;15(21):15391.
doi:10.3390/su152115391
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_15279 .

Milanović Pešić, Ana, Jojić Glavonjić, Tamara, Denda, Stefan, Jakovljević, Dejana, "Sustainable Tourism Development and Ramsar Sites in Serbia: Exploring Residents’ Attitudes and Water Quality Assessment in the Vlasina Protected Area" in Sustainability, 15, no. 21 (2023):15391,
https://doi.org/10.3390/su152115391 .,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_15279 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Malinović-Milićević, Slavica
AU  - Radovanović, Milan M.
AU  - Radenković, Sonja D.
AU  - Vyklyuk, Yaroslav
AU  - Milovanović, Boško
AU  - Milanović Pešić, Ana
AU  - Milenković, Milan
AU  - Popović, Vladimir
AU  - Petrović, Marko
AU  - Sydor, Petro
AU  - Gajić, Mirjana
PY  - 2023
UR  - https://dais.sanu.ac.rs/123456789/14049
AB  - This research is devoted to the determination of hidden dependencies between the flow of particles that come from the Sun and precipitation-induced floods in the United Kingdom (UK). The analysis covers 20 flood events during the period from October 2001 to December 2019. The parameters of solar activity were used as model input data, while precipitations data in the period 10 days before and during each flood event were used as model output. The time lag of 0–9 days was taken into account in the research. Correlation analysis was conducted to determine the degree of randomness for the time series of input and output parameters. For establishing a potential causative link, machine learning classification predictive modeling was applied. Two approaches, the decision tree, and the random forest were used. We analyzed the accuracy of classification models forecast from 0 to 9 days in advance. It was found that the most important factors for flood forecasting are proton density with a time lag of 9, differential proton flux in the range of 310–580 keV, and ion temperature. Research in this paper has shown that the decision tree model is more accurate and adequate in predicting the appearance of precipitation-induced floods up to 9 days ahead with an accuracy of 91%. The results of this study confirmed that by increasing technical capabilities, using improved machine learning techniques and large data sets, it is possible to improve the understanding of the physical link between the solar wind and tropospheric weather and help improve severe weather forecasting.
PB  - MDPI AG
T2  - Mathematics
T1  - Application of Solar Activity Time Series in Machine Learning Predictive Modeling of Precipitation-Induced Floods
SP  - 795
VL  - 11
IS  - 4
DO  - 10.3390/math11040795
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_14049
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Malinović-Milićević, Slavica and Radovanović, Milan M. and Radenković, Sonja D. and Vyklyuk, Yaroslav and Milovanović, Boško and Milanović Pešić, Ana and Milenković, Milan and Popović, Vladimir and Petrović, Marko and Sydor, Petro and Gajić, Mirjana",
year = "2023",
abstract = "This research is devoted to the determination of hidden dependencies between the flow of particles that come from the Sun and precipitation-induced floods in the United Kingdom (UK). The analysis covers 20 flood events during the period from October 2001 to December 2019. The parameters of solar activity were used as model input data, while precipitations data in the period 10 days before and during each flood event were used as model output. The time lag of 0–9 days was taken into account in the research. Correlation analysis was conducted to determine the degree of randomness for the time series of input and output parameters. For establishing a potential causative link, machine learning classification predictive modeling was applied. Two approaches, the decision tree, and the random forest were used. We analyzed the accuracy of classification models forecast from 0 to 9 days in advance. It was found that the most important factors for flood forecasting are proton density with a time lag of 9, differential proton flux in the range of 310–580 keV, and ion temperature. Research in this paper has shown that the decision tree model is more accurate and adequate in predicting the appearance of precipitation-induced floods up to 9 days ahead with an accuracy of 91%. The results of this study confirmed that by increasing technical capabilities, using improved machine learning techniques and large data sets, it is possible to improve the understanding of the physical link between the solar wind and tropospheric weather and help improve severe weather forecasting.",
publisher = "MDPI AG",
journal = "Mathematics",
title = "Application of Solar Activity Time Series in Machine Learning Predictive Modeling of Precipitation-Induced Floods",
pages = "795",
volume = "11",
number = "4",
doi = "10.3390/math11040795",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_14049"
}

Malinović-Milićević, S., Radovanović, M. M., Radenković, S. D., Vyklyuk, Y., Milovanović, B., Milanović Pešić, A., Milenković, M., Popović, V., Petrović, M., Sydor, P.,& Gajić, M.. (2023). Application of Solar Activity Time Series in Machine Learning Predictive Modeling of Precipitation-Induced Floods. in Mathematics
MDPI AG., 11(4), 795.
https://doi.org/10.3390/math11040795
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_14049

Malinović-Milićević S, Radovanović MM, Radenković SD, Vyklyuk Y, Milovanović B, Milanović Pešić A, Milenković M, Popović V, Petrović M, Sydor P, Gajić M. Application of Solar Activity Time Series in Machine Learning Predictive Modeling of Precipitation-Induced Floods. in Mathematics. 2023;11(4):795.
doi:10.3390/math11040795
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_14049 .

Malinović-Milićević, Slavica, Radovanović, Milan M., Radenković, Sonja D., Vyklyuk, Yaroslav, Milovanović, Boško, Milanović Pešić, Ana, Milenković, Milan, Popović, Vladimir, Petrović, Marko, Sydor, Petro, Gajić, Mirjana, "Application of Solar Activity Time Series in Machine Learning Predictive Modeling of Precipitation-Induced Floods" in Mathematics, 11, no. 4 (2023):795,
https://doi.org/10.3390/math11040795 .,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_14049 .

TY  - CONF
AU  - Radovanović, Milan M.
AU  - Malinović-Milićević, Slavica
AU  - Radenković, Sonja
AU  - Milenković, Milan
AU  - Milovanović, Boško
AU  - Milanović Pešić, Ana
AU  - Popović, Vladimir
PY  - 2022
UR  - https://dais.sanu.ac.rs/123456789/13864
AB  - This paper investigates hidden dependencies between the flow of particles coming from the Sun and 20 flood events in the United Kingdom (UK). The dataset analyzed in the study contains historical data covered on the daily level for the period October 2001 – December 2019. Solar activity parameters were used as model input, while rainfall data 10 days before and during each flood event were used as model output. To determine the degree of randomness for the time series of input and output parameters the correlation analysis has been performed. Machine Learning Classification Predictive Modelling is then applied to try to establish an eventual link between input and output data. Specifically, the decision tree, as the machine learning approach is used. In addition, it is analyzed the accuracy of classification models forecast. It is found that the most important factors for flood forecasting are proton density, differential proton flux in the range of 310-580 keV, and ion temperature. Research in this paper has shown that the classification model is accurate and adequate to predict the appearance of precipitation-induced floods.
PB  - Russian Federation : Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University
C3  - Рациональное природопользование: традиции и иновации. Материалы III Международной конференци
T1  - Influence of Space Weather on Precipitation-Induced Floods – Applying of Solar Activity Time Series in the Prediction of Precipitation-Induced Floods by Using the Machine Learning
SP  - 90
EP  - 97
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13864
ER  - 

@conference{
author = "Radovanović, Milan M. and Malinović-Milićević, Slavica and Radenković, Sonja and Milenković, Milan and Milovanović, Boško and Milanović Pešić, Ana and Popović, Vladimir",
year = "2022",
abstract = "This paper investigates hidden dependencies between the flow of particles coming from the Sun and 20 flood events in the United Kingdom (UK). The dataset analyzed in the study contains historical data covered on the daily level for the period October 2001 – December 2019. Solar activity parameters were used as model input, while rainfall data 10 days before and during each flood event were used as model output. To determine the degree of randomness for the time series of input and output parameters the correlation analysis has been performed. Machine Learning Classification Predictive Modelling is then applied to try to establish an eventual link between input and output data. Specifically, the decision tree, as the machine learning approach is used. In addition, it is analyzed the accuracy of classification models forecast. It is found that the most important factors for flood forecasting are proton density, differential proton flux in the range of 310-580 keV, and ion temperature. Research in this paper has shown that the classification model is accurate and adequate to predict the appearance of precipitation-induced floods.",
publisher = "Russian Federation : Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University",
journal = "Рациональное природопользование: традиции и иновации. Материалы III Международной конференци",
title = "Influence of Space Weather on Precipitation-Induced Floods – Applying of Solar Activity Time Series in the Prediction of Precipitation-Induced Floods by Using the Machine Learning",
pages = "90-97",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13864"
}

Radovanović, M. M., Malinović-Milićević, S., Radenković, S., Milenković, M., Milovanović, B., Milanović Pešić, A.,& Popović, V.. (2022). Influence of Space Weather on Precipitation-Induced Floods – Applying of Solar Activity Time Series in the Prediction of Precipitation-Induced Floods by Using the Machine Learning. in Рациональное природопользование: традиции и иновации. Материалы III Международной конференци
Russian Federation : Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University., 90-97.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13864

Radovanović MM, Malinović-Milićević S, Radenković S, Milenković M, Milovanović B, Milanović Pešić A, Popović V. Influence of Space Weather on Precipitation-Induced Floods – Applying of Solar Activity Time Series in the Prediction of Precipitation-Induced Floods by Using the Machine Learning. in Рациональное природопользование: традиции и иновации. Материалы III Международной конференци. 2022;:90-97.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13864 .

Radovanović, Milan M., Malinović-Milićević, Slavica, Radenković, Sonja, Milenković, Milan, Milovanović, Boško, Milanović Pešić, Ana, Popović, Vladimir, "Influence of Space Weather on Precipitation-Induced Floods – Applying of Solar Activity Time Series in the Prediction of Precipitation-Induced Floods by Using the Machine Learning" in Рациональное природопользование: традиции и иновации. Материалы III Международной конференци (2022):90-97,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13864 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Milanović-Pešić, Ana
AU  - Brankov, Jovana
AU  - Denda, Stefan
AU  - Bjeljac, Željko
AU  - Micić, Jasna
PY  - 2022
UR  - https://dais.sanu.ac.rs/123456789/13309
AB  - In the 21st century, many countries are starting to use geothermal energy (GTE) as a new energy source. Serbia also has the potential to use it as a renewable energy source. The complex geological structure of its terrain has given rise to a large number of thermomineral springs and geothermal wells. Based on the existing measurements, the geothermal heat flow density in Serbia ranges from 80 to 120 mW/m2, which is above Europe's average (60 mW/m2). Currently, there are 66 projects in Serbia that directly use geothermal energy. There are an estimated 1005 geothermal heat pump units. Their power varies between 10 kW and 40 kW and they operate for 2860 full load hours per year. This paper deals with the development, current state and perspectives of geothermal energy utilization for heating in Serbia. To illustrate the current state of geothermal energy utilization in Serbia, spa settlements Vranjska Banja and Gornja Trepča, as well as the Bogatić Municipality have been singled out as examples of good practice. The presented analysis includes determining the available amount of geothermal energy and its utilization for district heating or heating of selected public facilities. The concept and methodology of the presented research are based on data collection through literature review, surveys and field research. The analysis confirms the cost-effectiveness of using geothermal energy and reveals numerous ecological advantages over other energy sources. However, it was concluded that аlthough there is potential, geothermal sources, as a renewable energy source, are used negligibly in Serbia.
PB  - Elsevier B.V.
T2  - Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
T1  - Geothermal energy in Serbia – Current state, utilization and perspectives
VL  - 162
IS  - 112442
DO  - 10.1016/j.rser.2022.112442
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13309
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Milanović-Pešić, Ana and Brankov, Jovana and Denda, Stefan and Bjeljac, Željko and Micić, Jasna",
year = "2022",
abstract = "In the 21st century, many countries are starting to use geothermal energy (GTE) as a new energy source. Serbia also has the potential to use it as a renewable energy source. The complex geological structure of its terrain has given rise to a large number of thermomineral springs and geothermal wells. Based on the existing measurements, the geothermal heat flow density in Serbia ranges from 80 to 120 mW/m2, which is above Europe's average (60 mW/m2). Currently, there are 66 projects in Serbia that directly use geothermal energy. There are an estimated 1005 geothermal heat pump units. Their power varies between 10 kW and 40 kW and they operate for 2860 full load hours per year. This paper deals with the development, current state and perspectives of geothermal energy utilization for heating in Serbia. To illustrate the current state of geothermal energy utilization in Serbia, spa settlements Vranjska Banja and Gornja Trepča, as well as the Bogatić Municipality have been singled out as examples of good practice. The presented analysis includes determining the available amount of geothermal energy and its utilization for district heating or heating of selected public facilities. The concept and methodology of the presented research are based on data collection through literature review, surveys and field research. The analysis confirms the cost-effectiveness of using geothermal energy and reveals numerous ecological advantages over other energy sources. However, it was concluded that аlthough there is potential, geothermal sources, as a renewable energy source, are used negligibly in Serbia.",
publisher = "Elsevier B.V.",
journal = "Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews",
title = "Geothermal energy in Serbia – Current state, utilization and perspectives",
volume = "162",
number = "112442",
doi = "10.1016/j.rser.2022.112442",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13309"
}

Milanović-Pešić, A., Brankov, J., Denda, S., Bjeljac, Ž.,& Micić, J.. (2022). Geothermal energy in Serbia – Current state, utilization and perspectives. in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
Elsevier B.V.., 162(112442).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2022.112442
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13309

Milanović-Pešić A, Brankov J, Denda S, Bjeljac Ž, Micić J. Geothermal energy in Serbia – Current state, utilization and perspectives. in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 2022;162(112442).
doi:10.1016/j.rser.2022.112442
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13309 .

Milanović-Pešić, Ana, Brankov, Jovana, Denda, Stefan, Bjeljac, Željko, Micić, Jasna, "Geothermal energy in Serbia – Current state, utilization and perspectives" in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 162, no. 112442 (2022),
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2022.112442 .,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13309 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Vyklyuk, Yaroslav
AU  - Radovanović, Milan M.
AU  - Petrović, Marko D.
AU  - Ćurčić, Nina B.
AU  - Milenković, Milan
AU  - Malinović-Milićević, Slavica
AU  - Milovanović, Bosko
AU  - Yamashkin, Anatoliy A.
AU  - Milanović Pešić, Ana
AU  - Lukić, Dobrila
AU  - Gajić, Mirjana
PY  - 2020
UR  - https://dais.sanu.ac.rs/123456789/13407
AB  - The impact of solar activity on environmental processes is difficult to understand and complex for empirical modeling. This study aimed to establish forecast models of the meteorological conditions in the forest fire areas based on the solar activity parameters applying the neural networks approach. During July and August 2018, severe forest fires simultaneously occurred in the State of California (USA), Portugal, and Greece. Air temperature and humidity data together with solar parameters (integral flux of solar protons, differential electron flux and proton flux, solar wind plasma parameters, and solar radio flux at 10.7 cm data) were used in long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network ensembles. It is found that solar activity mostly affects the humidity for two stations in California and Portugal (an increase in the integral flux of solar protons of > 30 MeV by 10% increases the humidity by 3.25%, 1.65%, and 1.57%, respectively). Furthermore, an increase in air temperature of 10% increases the humidity by 2.55%, 2.01%, and 0.26%, respectively. It is shown that temperature is less sensitive to changes in solar parameters but depends on previous conditions (previous increase of 10% increases the current temperature by 0.75%, 0.34%, and 0.33%, respectively). Humidity in Greece is mostly impacted by solar flux F10.7 cm and previous values of humidity. An increase in these factors by 10% will lead to a decrease in the humidity of 3.89% or an increase of 1.31%, while air temperature mostly depends on ion temperature. If this factor increases by 10%, it will lead to air temperature rising by 0.42%
PB  - Basel, Switzerland : MDPI.
T2  - Sustainability
T1  - Connection of Solar Activities and Forest Fires in 2018: Events in the USA (California), Portugal and Greece
SP  - 10261
VL  - 12
IS  - 24
DO  - 10.3390/su122410261
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13407
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Vyklyuk, Yaroslav and Radovanović, Milan M. and Petrović, Marko D. and Ćurčić, Nina B. and Milenković, Milan and Malinović-Milićević, Slavica and Milovanović, Bosko and Yamashkin, Anatoliy A. and Milanović Pešić, Ana and Lukić, Dobrila and Gajić, Mirjana",
year = "2020",
abstract = "The impact of solar activity on environmental processes is difficult to understand and complex for empirical modeling. This study aimed to establish forecast models of the meteorological conditions in the forest fire areas based on the solar activity parameters applying the neural networks approach. During July and August 2018, severe forest fires simultaneously occurred in the State of California (USA), Portugal, and Greece. Air temperature and humidity data together with solar parameters (integral flux of solar protons, differential electron flux and proton flux, solar wind plasma parameters, and solar radio flux at 10.7 cm data) were used in long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network ensembles. It is found that solar activity mostly affects the humidity for two stations in California and Portugal (an increase in the integral flux of solar protons of > 30 MeV by 10% increases the humidity by 3.25%, 1.65%, and 1.57%, respectively). Furthermore, an increase in air temperature of 10% increases the humidity by 2.55%, 2.01%, and 0.26%, respectively. It is shown that temperature is less sensitive to changes in solar parameters but depends on previous conditions (previous increase of 10% increases the current temperature by 0.75%, 0.34%, and 0.33%, respectively). Humidity in Greece is mostly impacted by solar flux F10.7 cm and previous values of humidity. An increase in these factors by 10% will lead to a decrease in the humidity of 3.89% or an increase of 1.31%, while air temperature mostly depends on ion temperature. If this factor increases by 10%, it will lead to air temperature rising by 0.42%",
publisher = "Basel, Switzerland : MDPI.",
journal = "Sustainability",
title = "Connection of Solar Activities and Forest Fires in 2018: Events in the USA (California), Portugal and Greece",
pages = "10261",
volume = "12",
number = "24",
doi = "10.3390/su122410261",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13407"
}

Vyklyuk, Y., Radovanović, M. M., Petrović, M. D., Ćurčić, N. B., Milenković, M., Malinović-Milićević, S., Milovanović, B., Yamashkin, A. A., Milanović Pešić, A., Lukić, D.,& Gajić, M.. (2020). Connection of Solar Activities and Forest Fires in 2018: Events in the USA (California), Portugal and Greece. in Sustainability
Basel, Switzerland : MDPI.., 12(24), 10261.
https://doi.org/10.3390/su122410261
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13407

Vyklyuk Y, Radovanović MM, Petrović MD, Ćurčić NB, Milenković M, Malinović-Milićević S, Milovanović B, Yamashkin AA, Milanović Pešić A, Lukić D, Gajić M. Connection of Solar Activities and Forest Fires in 2018: Events in the USA (California), Portugal and Greece. in Sustainability. 2020;12(24):10261.
doi:10.3390/su122410261
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13407 .

Vyklyuk, Yaroslav, Radovanović, Milan M., Petrović, Marko D., Ćurčić, Nina B., Milenković, Milan, Malinović-Milićević, Slavica, Milovanović, Bosko, Yamashkin, Anatoliy A., Milanović Pešić, Ana, Lukić, Dobrila, Gajić, Mirjana, "Connection of Solar Activities and Forest Fires in 2018: Events in the USA (California), Portugal and Greece" in Sustainability, 12, no. 24 (2020):10261,
https://doi.org/10.3390/su122410261 .,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13407 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Denda, Stefan Lj.
AU  - Micić, Jasna M.
AU  - Milanović-Pešić, Ana Z.
AU  - Brankov, Jovana J.
AU  - Bjeljac, Željko N.
PY  - 2019
UR  - https://dais.sanu.ac.rs/123456789/7036
AB  - Despite the significant natural potential, geothermal energy in Serbia has traditionally been used in balneology and recreation, while its share in the country’s total energy balance is almost negligible (0.05%). The present paper deals with the City Municipality of Vranjska Banja as a pioneer in the territory of Serbia in using geothermal energy for heating. The concept and methodology of the present research are directly related to the utilization of geothermal resources for district heating in the Vranjska Banja area. The presented analysis includes: determining the available amount of energy, identifying the energy needs of selected public
facilities, and the estimation of investment necessary for energy utilization. A survey, combined with field research, is focused on four public facilities connected to the heating system relying on geothermal sources, as well as on two facilities that should be connected to the system in the next phases. The results show economic, ecological, and technological advantages of using geothermal heating systems, as well as the acceptable price of equipment maintenance. An economic assessment of the transition of one facility from the existing heating system to a system relying on geothermal energy has also been made. The analysis confirms the cost-effectiveness
of using geothermal energy and reveals numerous ecological advantages (safe heating, absence of CO2 emission) over other energy sources.
PB  - Belgrade : Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences
T2  - Thermal Science: an International Journal
T1  - Utilization of geothermal springs as a renewable energy source: Vranjska Banja case study
SP  - 4083
EP  - 4093
VL  - 23
IS  - 6 (Part B)
DO  - 10.2298/TSCI190816391D
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_7036
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Denda, Stefan Lj. and Micić, Jasna M. and Milanović-Pešić, Ana Z. and Brankov, Jovana J. and Bjeljac, Željko N.",
year = "2019",
abstract = "Despite the significant natural potential, geothermal energy in Serbia has traditionally been used in balneology and recreation, while its share in the country’s total energy balance is almost negligible (0.05%). The present paper deals with the City Municipality of Vranjska Banja as a pioneer in the territory of Serbia in using geothermal energy for heating. The concept and methodology of the present research are directly related to the utilization of geothermal resources for district heating in the Vranjska Banja area. The presented analysis includes: determining the available amount of energy, identifying the energy needs of selected public
facilities, and the estimation of investment necessary for energy utilization. A survey, combined with field research, is focused on four public facilities connected to the heating system relying on geothermal sources, as well as on two facilities that should be connected to the system in the next phases. The results show economic, ecological, and technological advantages of using geothermal heating systems, as well as the acceptable price of equipment maintenance. An economic assessment of the transition of one facility from the existing heating system to a system relying on geothermal energy has also been made. The analysis confirms the cost-effectiveness
of using geothermal energy and reveals numerous ecological advantages (safe heating, absence of CO2 emission) over other energy sources.",
publisher = "Belgrade : Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences",
journal = "Thermal Science: an International Journal",
title = "Utilization of geothermal springs as a renewable energy source: Vranjska Banja case study",
pages = "4083-4093",
volume = "23",
number = "6 (Part B)",
doi = "10.2298/TSCI190816391D",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_7036"
}

Denda, S. Lj., Micić, J. M., Milanović-Pešić, A. Z., Brankov, J. J.,& Bjeljac, Ž. N.. (2019). Utilization of geothermal springs as a renewable energy source: Vranjska Banja case study. in Thermal Science: an International Journal
Belgrade : Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences., 23(6 (Part B)), 4083-4093.
https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI190816391D
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_7036

Denda SL, Micić JM, Milanović-Pešić AZ, Brankov JJ, Bjeljac ŽN. Utilization of geothermal springs as a renewable energy source: Vranjska Banja case study. in Thermal Science: an International Journal. 2019;23(6 (Part B)):4083-4093.
doi:10.2298/TSCI190816391D
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_7036 .

Denda, Stefan Lj., Micić, Jasna M., Milanović-Pešić, Ana Z., Brankov, Jovana J., Bjeljac, Željko N., "Utilization of geothermal springs as a renewable energy source: Vranjska Banja case study" in Thermal Science: an International Journal, 23, no. 6 (Part B) (2019):4083-4093,
https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI190816391D .,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_7036 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Brankov, Jovana
AU  - Jojić Glavonjić, Tamara
AU  - Milanović Pešić, Ana
AU  - Petrović, Marko D.
AU  - Tretiakova, Tatiana N.
PY  - 2019
UR  - http://content.sciendo.com/view/journals/euco/11/1/article-p124.xml
UR  - https://dais.sanu.ac.rs/123456789/6010
AB  - The research involved a comparison of two case studies dealing with the perceptions of the local population to tourism. The effects and the control of tourism development were analyzed, as well as the availability of information on sustainable tourism and impact on the community in two national parks (NPs) in Serbia. The survey method was applied on a sample of 227 (NP Đerdap) and 210 (NP Tara) respondents. The survey results identified the strong positive perception of the presence of tourists among the two categories of respondents and also certain differences regarding economic benefits of tourism. Research also recognized a poor impact of tourism on the local community in terms of their knowledge and personal involvement. Education and employment in tourism industry were found to be strong factors affecting the residents’ perceptions. Some independent variables significantly predicted the level of local population’s support for tourism in both national parks (tourism impact on job creation, tourism impact on fostering a local culture, etc.). This comparative analysis provides inputs for directing future tourism programmes and devising a development policies adjusted to the needs of the local community.
PB  - Brno : Mendelova univerzita v Brně
T2  - European Countryside
T1  - Residents’ Perceptions of Tourism Impact on Community in National Parks in Serbia
SP  - 124
EP  - 142
VL  - 11
IS  - 1
DO  - 10.2478/euco-2019-0008
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_6010
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Brankov, Jovana and Jojić Glavonjić, Tamara and Milanović Pešić, Ana and Petrović, Marko D. and Tretiakova, Tatiana N.",
year = "2019",
abstract = "The research involved a comparison of two case studies dealing with the perceptions of the local population to tourism. The effects and the control of tourism development were analyzed, as well as the availability of information on sustainable tourism and impact on the community in two national parks (NPs) in Serbia. The survey method was applied on a sample of 227 (NP Đerdap) and 210 (NP Tara) respondents. The survey results identified the strong positive perception of the presence of tourists among the two categories of respondents and also certain differences regarding economic benefits of tourism. Research also recognized a poor impact of tourism on the local community in terms of their knowledge and personal involvement. Education and employment in tourism industry were found to be strong factors affecting the residents’ perceptions. Some independent variables significantly predicted the level of local population’s support for tourism in both national parks (tourism impact on job creation, tourism impact on fostering a local culture, etc.). This comparative analysis provides inputs for directing future tourism programmes and devising a development policies adjusted to the needs of the local community.",
publisher = "Brno : Mendelova univerzita v Brně",
journal = "European Countryside",
title = "Residents’ Perceptions of Tourism Impact on Community in National Parks in Serbia",
pages = "124-142",
volume = "11",
number = "1",
doi = "10.2478/euco-2019-0008",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_6010"
}

Brankov, J., Jojić Glavonjić, T., Milanović Pešić, A., Petrović, M. D.,& Tretiakova, T. N.. (2019). Residents’ Perceptions of Tourism Impact on Community in National Parks in Serbia. in European Countryside
Brno : Mendelova univerzita v Brně., 11(1), 124-142.
https://doi.org/10.2478/euco-2019-0008
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_6010

Brankov J, Jojić Glavonjić T, Milanović Pešić A, Petrović MD, Tretiakova TN. Residents’ Perceptions of Tourism Impact on Community in National Parks in Serbia. in European Countryside. 2019;11(1):124-142.
doi:10.2478/euco-2019-0008
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_6010 .

Brankov, Jovana, Jojić Glavonjić, Tamara, Milanović Pešić, Ana, Petrović, Marko D., Tretiakova, Tatiana N., "Residents’ Perceptions of Tourism Impact on Community in National Parks in Serbia" in European Countryside, 11, no. 1 (2019):124-142,
https://doi.org/10.2478/euco-2019-0008 .,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_6010 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Vyklyuk, Yaroslav
AU  - Radovanović, Milan. M.
AU  - Stanojević, Gorica B.
AU  - Milovanović, Boško
AU  - Taras, Leko
AU  - Milenković, Milan
AU  - Petrović, Marko
AU  - Yamashkin, Anatoly A.
AU  - Milanović Pešić, Ana
AU  - Jakovljević, Dejana
AU  - Malinović Milićević, Slavica
PY  - 2018
UR  - https://dais.sanu.ac.rs/123456789/13855
AB  - This research presents improved results on modelling relationship between the flow of charged particles that are coming from the Sun and hurricanes. For establishing eventual link, the methods of Big Data, such as Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Parallel Calculations, Fractal analysis etc., are applied. The parameters of solar activity were used as model input data, while data on hurricane phenomenon were used as model output, and both of these on daily level for May–October in period 1999–2013. The nonlinear R/S analysis was conducted to determine the degree of randomness for time series of input and output parameters. The time lag of 0–10 days was taken into account in the research. It led to growing input parameters up to 99. The problem of finding hidden dependencies in large databases refers to the problems of Data Mining. The ANFIS with Sugeno function of zero order was selected as a method of output fuzzy system. The “brute-force attack” method was used to find the most significant factors from all data. To do this, more than 3 million ANFIS models were tested on Computer Cluster using Parallel Calculation. Within the experiments, eight input factors were calculated as a base for building the final ANFIS models. These models can predict up to 39% of the hurricanes. This means, if causal link exists, approximately every third penetration of charged particles from coronary hole(s) or/and from the energetic region(s) toward the Earth precede the hurricanes.
PB  - Netherlands : Elsevier Ltd.
T2  - Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
T1  - Hurricane genesis modeling based on the relationship between solar activity and hurricanes II
SP  - 159
EP  - 164
VL  - 180
DO  - 10.1016/j.jastp.2017.09.008
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13855
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Vyklyuk, Yaroslav and Radovanović, Milan. M. and Stanojević, Gorica B. and Milovanović, Boško and Taras, Leko and Milenković, Milan and Petrović, Marko and Yamashkin, Anatoly A. and Milanović Pešić, Ana and Jakovljević, Dejana and Malinović Milićević, Slavica",
year = "2018",
abstract = "This research presents improved results on modelling relationship between the flow of charged particles that are coming from the Sun and hurricanes. For establishing eventual link, the methods of Big Data, such as Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Parallel Calculations, Fractal analysis etc., are applied. The parameters of solar activity were used as model input data, while data on hurricane phenomenon were used as model output, and both of these on daily level for May–October in period 1999–2013. The nonlinear R/S analysis was conducted to determine the degree of randomness for time series of input and output parameters. The time lag of 0–10 days was taken into account in the research. It led to growing input parameters up to 99. The problem of finding hidden dependencies in large databases refers to the problems of Data Mining. The ANFIS with Sugeno function of zero order was selected as a method of output fuzzy system. The “brute-force attack” method was used to find the most significant factors from all data. To do this, more than 3 million ANFIS models were tested on Computer Cluster using Parallel Calculation. Within the experiments, eight input factors were calculated as a base for building the final ANFIS models. These models can predict up to 39% of the hurricanes. This means, if causal link exists, approximately every third penetration of charged particles from coronary hole(s) or/and from the energetic region(s) toward the Earth precede the hurricanes.",
publisher = "Netherlands : Elsevier Ltd.",
journal = "Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics",
title = "Hurricane genesis modeling based on the relationship between solar activity and hurricanes II",
pages = "159-164",
volume = "180",
doi = "10.1016/j.jastp.2017.09.008",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13855"
}

Vyklyuk, Y., Radovanović, Milan. M., Stanojević, G. B., Milovanović, B., Taras, L., Milenković, M., Petrović, M., Yamashkin, A. A., Milanović Pešić, A., Jakovljević, D.,& Malinović Milićević, S.. (2018). Hurricane genesis modeling based on the relationship between solar activity and hurricanes II. in Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
Netherlands : Elsevier Ltd.., 180, 159-164.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2017.09.008
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13855

Vyklyuk Y, Radovanović MM, Stanojević GB, Milovanović B, Taras L, Milenković M, Petrović M, Yamashkin AA, Milanović Pešić A, Jakovljević D, Malinović Milićević S. Hurricane genesis modeling based on the relationship between solar activity and hurricanes II. in Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. 2018;180:159-164.
doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2017.09.008
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13855 .

Vyklyuk, Yaroslav, Radovanović, Milan. M., Stanojević, Gorica B., Milovanović, Boško, Taras, Leko, Milenković, Milan, Petrović, Marko, Yamashkin, Anatoly A., Milanović Pešić, Ana, Jakovljević, Dejana, Malinović Milićević, Slavica, "Hurricane genesis modeling based on the relationship between solar activity and hurricanes II" in Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 180 (2018):159-164,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2017.09.008 .,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13855 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Vyklyuk, Yaroslav
AU  - Radovanović, Milan M.
AU  - Milovanović, Boško
AU  - Leko, Taras
AU  - Milenković, Milan
AU  - Milošević, Zoran
AU  - Milanović Pešić, Ana
AU  - Jakovljević, Dejana M.
PY  - 2017
UR  - https://dais.sanu.ac.rs/123456789/1058
AB  - The work examines the potential causative link between the flow of charged particles that are coming from the Sun and hurricanes. For establishing eventual link, the method of correlation analysis is applied, but with the phase shift of 0–5 days. There are nine parameters which are observed as an input, and daily values of the hurricane phenomenon are observed as an output in the period May–October 1999–2013. The results that have been obtained are considerably weak, leading to the need of applying the method of nonlinear analysis. The R/S analysis was conducted to determine the degree of randomness for time series of input and output parameters. The calculated Hurst index of variables X4–X9 is persistent (0.71–0.96). That allows us to conclude that the dynamics of these time series is heavily dependent on the same factors or on each other. Unlike the previous index, we have concluded that the behavior of high-energy protons (X1–X3) and the number of hurricane time series are completely stochastic. The problem of finding hidden dependencies in large databases refers to problems of data mining. The Sugeno function of zero order was selected as a method of output fuzzy system. Bearing in mind the available equipment, the models had to be shortened to the phase shift of 0–3 days. The “brute-force attack” method was used to find the most significant factors from all data. Within the experiments, six input factors were calculated which became the basis for building the final ANFIS models. These models can predict 22–26 % of the hurricanes.
PB  - Springer Netherlands
T2  - Natural Hazards
T1  - Hurricane genesis modelling based on the relationship between solar activity and hurricanes
SP  - 1043
EP  - 1062
VL  - 85
IS  - 2
DO  - 10.1007/s11069-016-2620-6
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_1058
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Vyklyuk, Yaroslav and Radovanović, Milan M. and Milovanović, Boško and Leko, Taras and Milenković, Milan and Milošević, Zoran and Milanović Pešić, Ana and Jakovljević, Dejana M.",
year = "2017",
abstract = "The work examines the potential causative link between the flow of charged particles that are coming from the Sun and hurricanes. For establishing eventual link, the method of correlation analysis is applied, but with the phase shift of 0–5 days. There are nine parameters which are observed as an input, and daily values of the hurricane phenomenon are observed as an output in the period May–October 1999–2013. The results that have been obtained are considerably weak, leading to the need of applying the method of nonlinear analysis. The R/S analysis was conducted to determine the degree of randomness for time series of input and output parameters. The calculated Hurst index of variables X4–X9 is persistent (0.71–0.96). That allows us to conclude that the dynamics of these time series is heavily dependent on the same factors or on each other. Unlike the previous index, we have concluded that the behavior of high-energy protons (X1–X3) and the number of hurricane time series are completely stochastic. The problem of finding hidden dependencies in large databases refers to problems of data mining. The Sugeno function of zero order was selected as a method of output fuzzy system. Bearing in mind the available equipment, the models had to be shortened to the phase shift of 0–3 days. The “brute-force attack” method was used to find the most significant factors from all data. Within the experiments, six input factors were calculated which became the basis for building the final ANFIS models. These models can predict 22–26 % of the hurricanes.",
publisher = "Springer Netherlands",
journal = "Natural Hazards",
title = "Hurricane genesis modelling based on the relationship between solar activity and hurricanes",
pages = "1043-1062",
volume = "85",
number = "2",
doi = "10.1007/s11069-016-2620-6",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_1058"
}

Vyklyuk, Y., Radovanović, M. M., Milovanović, B., Leko, T., Milenković, M., Milošević, Z., Milanović Pešić, A.,& Jakovljević, D. M.. (2017). Hurricane genesis modelling based on the relationship between solar activity and hurricanes. in Natural Hazards
Springer Netherlands., 85(2), 1043-1062.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2620-6
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_1058

Vyklyuk Y, Radovanović MM, Milovanović B, Leko T, Milenković M, Milošević Z, Milanović Pešić A, Jakovljević DM. Hurricane genesis modelling based on the relationship between solar activity and hurricanes. in Natural Hazards. 2017;85(2):1043-1062.
doi:10.1007/s11069-016-2620-6
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_1058 .

Vyklyuk, Yaroslav, Radovanović, Milan M., Milovanović, Boško, Leko, Taras, Milenković, Milan, Milošević, Zoran, Milanović Pešić, Ana, Jakovljević, Dejana M., "Hurricane genesis modelling based on the relationship between solar activity and hurricanes" in Natural Hazards, 85, no. 2 (2017):1043-1062,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2620-6 .,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_1058 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Petrović, Ana M.
AU  - Dragićević, Slavoljub
AU  - Radić, Boris
AU  - Milanović-Pešić, Ana
PY  - 2015
UR  - https://dais.sanu.ac.rs/123456789/12564
AB  - According to the number of torrential watercourses, the frequency of occurrence and the consequences that have resulted in the past, torrential floods are the most frequent and disastrous natural hazards in Serbia. Since they are always followed by severe material damages and often casualties, the character of torrential flood events seems to be a real challenge in natural risk management in our country. In this paper, phenomenon of torrential floods in Kolubara river basin is presented through temporal and spatial characterization of registered torrential flood events. The dataset of 121 recorded torrential flood events in the Kolubara river basin for the period from 1929 to 2010 is derived from the Inventory of torrential floods in Serbia for the period of 99 years, 1915-2013 (with 848 torrential flood events and over 133 casualties). The main focus is on the frequency of occurrence of registered torrential flood events. Within a year, there is a primary peak in May and June and secondary peak in March; this finding corresponds greatly to the monthly distribution of all registered events on the Inventory level. Frequency of torrential floods occurrence within a researched period shows a significant increment, the number of registered events is more than doubled comparing the latest period (1991-2010) with the first one (1929-1960), while the in-between period (1961-1990) already indicates that increase. These results can be used for improving the system of preventive and mitigation measures in order to reduce the torrential flood consequences to an acceptable level.
PB  - Springer, New York
T2  - Natural Hazards
T1  - Historical torrential flood events in the Kolubara river basin
SP  - 537
EP  - 547
VL  - 79
IS  - 1
DO  - 10.1007/s11069-015-1860-1
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_12564
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Petrović, Ana M. and Dragićević, Slavoljub and Radić, Boris and Milanović-Pešić, Ana",
year = "2015",
abstract = "According to the number of torrential watercourses, the frequency of occurrence and the consequences that have resulted in the past, torrential floods are the most frequent and disastrous natural hazards in Serbia. Since they are always followed by severe material damages and often casualties, the character of torrential flood events seems to be a real challenge in natural risk management in our country. In this paper, phenomenon of torrential floods in Kolubara river basin is presented through temporal and spatial characterization of registered torrential flood events. The dataset of 121 recorded torrential flood events in the Kolubara river basin for the period from 1929 to 2010 is derived from the Inventory of torrential floods in Serbia for the period of 99 years, 1915-2013 (with 848 torrential flood events and over 133 casualties). The main focus is on the frequency of occurrence of registered torrential flood events. Within a year, there is a primary peak in May and June and secondary peak in March; this finding corresponds greatly to the monthly distribution of all registered events on the Inventory level. Frequency of torrential floods occurrence within a researched period shows a significant increment, the number of registered events is more than doubled comparing the latest period (1991-2010) with the first one (1929-1960), while the in-between period (1961-1990) already indicates that increase. These results can be used for improving the system of preventive and mitigation measures in order to reduce the torrential flood consequences to an acceptable level.",
publisher = "Springer, New York",
journal = "Natural Hazards",
title = "Historical torrential flood events in the Kolubara river basin",
pages = "537-547",
volume = "79",
number = "1",
doi = "10.1007/s11069-015-1860-1",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_12564"
}

Petrović, A. M., Dragićević, S., Radić, B.,& Milanović-Pešić, A.. (2015). Historical torrential flood events in the Kolubara river basin. in Natural Hazards
Springer, New York., 79(1), 537-547.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1860-1
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_12564

Petrović AM, Dragićević S, Radić B, Milanović-Pešić A. Historical torrential flood events in the Kolubara river basin. in Natural Hazards. 2015;79(1):537-547.
doi:10.1007/s11069-015-1860-1
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_12564 .

Petrović, Ana M., Dragićević, Slavoljub, Radić, Boris, Milanović-Pešić, Ana, "Historical torrential flood events in the Kolubara river basin" in Natural Hazards, 79, no. 1 (2015):537-547,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1860-1 .,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_12564 .

TY  - THES
AU  - Милановић Пешић, Ана
PY  - 2015
UR  - https://dais.sanu.ac.rs/123456789/1654
AB  - Основни циљ истраживања у оквиру ове дисертације био је постављање научно релевантних, теоријско исправних и применљивих основа за утврђивање веза између појединих физичкогеографских фактора, антропогеног утицаја и природних непогода на територији Шумадије. Задаци истраживања су се, пре свега, односили на детерминисање најрелевантнијих физичкогеографских фактора који утичу на појаву природних непогода у Шумадији, утврђивање степена антропогеног утицаја, као и на испитивање узрочно-последичних веза између појединих природних непогода. Посебан део истраживања био је усмерен на процену вероватноће појављивања одређених природних непогода као и на њихову просторну дистрибуцију у Шумадији. 
С обзиром на комплексност и обим предмета истраживања, у раду је постојала потреба за применом одговарајућих основних, опште научних и посебних метода погодних за постављање полазних хипотеза, доказивање ставова и проверавање и доношење научних закључака. Такође, у овом раду се тежило и својеврсном доприносу методологији при чему су у фокусу били објективност, прецизност и практична примењивост добијених резултата. Научни значај и допринос истраживања огледао се у истицању географског аспекта проучавања природних непогода, како би се пронашли критеријуми за идентификовање природних непогода и у другим географским областима, али и у пројекцијама будућих екстремних дешавања. Допринос овог истраживања дат је систематизацијом, објашњењима и новим подацима о одређеним физичкогеографским својствима и природним непогодама на територији Шумадије. 
Географски аспект анализе настанка природних непогода у Шумадији подразумевао је разматрање физичкогеографског и антропогеног аспекта. Као резултат овог истраживања идентификовани су физичкогеографски фактори који су директно у функцији настанка природних непогода у Шумадији. То су: неотектонски покрети, геолошка грађа, рељеф (хипсометрија и нагиби терена), циркулација атмосфере, интензивне падавине и ерозија. 
С обзиром на перманентан пораст утицаја антропогеног фактора на елементе природне средине, многа научна и стручна истраживања природних непогода имају за циљ да утврде у којој су мери ове појаве у вези са антропогеним утицајима, а у којој су последица физичкогеографских фактора и њихових промена. Овим истраживањем утвђено је да на територији Шумадије у одређеној мери постоји антропогени утицај на промену услова у природној средини и генезу појединих природних непогода. Антропогени утицај испољава се како директно, тако и индиректно. Директни утицај огледа се у урбанизацији, односно изградњи насеља и инфраструктуре у клизним појасевима, чиме су се на многобројним локацијама активирала клизишта. Такође, резултати анализе климатских елемената за територију Шумадије у периоду 1961-2010. година указали су да је процес урбанизације утицао на топоклиму Београда, односно на настанак урбаног острва топлоте. Индиректно, антропогени утицај огледа се у изменама биогеографских својстава Шумадије, чиме је иницирана ерозија на око 74,5% од укупне површине истраживане територије. Ерозија је један од фактора настанка бујичних поплава и клизишта. Антропогеним активностима у сливовима река утицало се и на промене водних режима шумадијских водотока, што може утицати на настанак и размере поплаве. Један од примера је слив Колубаре. Међутим, важно је напоменути да физичкогеографски фактори имају већи утицај на настанак природних непогода у Шумадији у односу на антропогене активности. 
Према резултатима анализе, у Шумадији су са аспекта учесталости и потенцијалних последица најзначајније хидролошке непогоде (поплаве), а затим геофизичке непогоде (земљотреси и клизишта), климатске и метеоролошке непогоде (екстремне температуре ваздуха, снежне мећаве и олујно-градоносне непогоде). Индикативне плавне зоне налазе се у алувијалним равнима свих ободних река и свих већих шумадијских река. Статистичким анализама утврђено је да су од друге половине XX века до 2014. године највеће и најразорније поплаве у Шумадији забележене 1965, 1999. и 2014. године. Као тзв. историјска поплава може се означити поплава на Западној Морави 1965. године, када је код Јасике забележен протицај од 1 870 m3/s (повратни период 421 година). Стогодишње воде забележене су на појединим токовима током поплава 1965. и 2014. године. Иако нису чести, земљотреси су најразорнија природна непогода у Шумадији. Према степену потенцијалне сеизмичности, најугроженија је Великоморавска котлина, као и зоне у долини Груже и Лепенице, где се за повратни период од 95 година (са вероватноћом превазилажења 10% у 10 година) може очекивати земљотрес јачине до осам степени по EMS-98 скали. Појава клизишта на овој територији углавном је везана за терене изграђене од неогених седимената и за висински појас 200-300 m н.в. Међу климатским и метеоролошким непогодама у Шумадији се издвајају екстремне температуре ваздуха и олујно-градоносне непогоде. Екстремно високе температуре ваздуха израженије су у односу на екстремно ниске. Тако је апсолутно максимална температура ваздуха у Србији забележена у Смедеревској Паланци и износила је 44,9°C (24.07.2007.). Снажни удари ветра у Шумадији најчешћи су у кошавском подручју Подунавља у зимском периоду године. Током летњег периода олујни ветрови су везани за настанак природних непогода и ретко су изнад 17,2 m/s. Ова територија припада умерено сушном и умерено влажном региону, па је у односу на друге делове Србије мање угрожена од суше. Такође и угроженост од шумских пожара је мања у односу на друге делове Србије. 
На крају, као синтеза целокупног истраживања, урађен је географски информациони систем (ГИС), који је омогућио да се систематизују подаци о природним непогодама у Шумадији. Такође, са географског аспекта, утврђен је степен угрожености територије од природних непогода у циљу раног упозоравања и дефинисања смерница за ублажавање њихових последица.
AB  - The main purpose of the research presented in this thesis is to establish scientifically relevant, theoretically correct and applicable bases for the evaluation of connection between physical geographic factors, anthropogenic impact and natural disasters on the Šumadija territory.
The tasks of the study are primarily related to identifying the most relevant physical geographic factors that influence the natural disasters occurrence in Šumadija area, determining the degree of anthropogenic influence, as well as the researching of causal connections between natural disasters. A special part of the research was aimed at assessment of the occurrence probabilities for certain natural disasters as well as their spatial distribution in Šumadija area.
Having in mind the complexity and the scope of the subject of research, it was necessary to apply appropriate basic, general scientific and special methods in order to define the initial hypotheses, prove the postulates, test and make scientific conclusions. Also, this thesis seeks to contribute to the methodology, while laying focus on objectivity, accuracy and practical applicability of the results. The scientific importance and contribution of this thesis was in the emphasis of the natural disasters study from the geographical aspects, in order to determine criteria for the natural disasters identification on other geographical areas, as well as in projections of future extreme occurrence. The contribution of this research consists of systematization, explanations and new data about specific physical geographic features and natural disasters on the Šumadija territory.
The geographical aspect of the analysis of the natural disasters occurrence in Šumadija area included consideration of the physical geographic and anthropogenic aspects. As a result of this research physical geographic factors were identified, which are directly involved in the natural disasters occurrence on Šumadija area. These are: neotectonic movements, geological structure, relief (hypsometry and terrain slope), the atmosphere circulation, intense precipitation and erosion.
Having in mind the permanent increase of the anthropogenic factors influence on the elements of the natural environment, many scientific and professional natural disasters researches aim to determine the degree of connections between these occurrences and anthropogenic impacts, as well as the relations between natural disasters and physical geographic factors and their changes. As a result of this research it was concluded that, to the certain extent, there is anthropogenic influence on changing conditions in the natural environment and the genesis of certain natural disasters in Šumadija. Anthropogenic influence is manifested both directly and indirectly. Direct impact is reflected in the urbanization and construction of settlements and infrastructure in the landslide belts, which cause landslides activations in many locations. Also, the results of the climate elements analysis for the Šumadija territory in 1961-2010 period has shown that the urbanization process influenced Belgrade local climate and the genesis of urban heat island. Indirectly, the anthropogenic influence is reflected in changes of the biogeographic features in Šumadija, which initiated erosion at about 74,5% of the total researched territory. Erosion is one of the factors of torrential floods and landslides genesis. Water regimes changes in Šumadija rivers, were affected by anthropogenic activities in the river basins which could influence flood occurrence and scale. One of the examples is the Kolubara river basin. However, it is important to note that physical geographic factors have a greater impact than anthropogenic activities on the natural disasters occurrences in Šumadija.
According to the analysis results, the most significant disasters in Šumadija area, by frequency and potential consequences, are hydrological disasters (floods), and after these, geophysical disasters (earthquakes and landslides), climate and meteorological disasters (extreme air temperatures, snowstorms, storms and hail). Indicative flood zones are located in the alluvial plains of border rivers and all other greater rivers in Šumadija area. According to the statistical analysis, it was concluded that in the period from the second half of the twentieth century to 2014, the biggest and most destructive floods in Šumadija were recorded in 1965, 1999 and 2014. So called historical flood, was the one on Zapadna Morava river basin in 1965, when discharge of 1 870 m3 /s (return period of 421 years) was recorded by Jasika hydrological station. The high level water with return period of 100 years was recorded on several rivers in Šumadija during floods in 1965 and 2014. Although they are not common, earthquakes are the most devastating natural disasters in Šumadija area. According to the potential seismicity degree, the most vulnerable is Velika Morava river basin and zones in the valley of Gruža and Lepenica, where an earthquake up to eight degrees by EMS-98 scale for the return period of 95 years (with overcoming probability of 10% in 10 years) could be expected. Landslides in this area are mainly related to the terrain of Neogene sediments and to 200-300 m altitude. Among climate and meteorological disasters in Šumadija the most significant are extreme air temperatures, storms and hail. It is important to note that the extremely high air temperatures are more frequent than extremely low air temperatures. As an example, absolute maximum air temperature of 44,9°C was recorded in Smederevska Palanka on 24.07.2007. Strong gusts in Šumadija area are most common in the Danube region, where košava occurs mainly in the winter period. During the summer period stormy winds are related to the natural disasters occurrence and rarely reach speed above 17.2 m/s. This territory belongs to moderately arid and moderately humid region, and it is less affected by drought in comparison to other parts of Serbia. Also, the vulnerability of forest fires is lower than in other parts of Serbia.
Finally, as an overall synthesis of this research, a geographic informational system (GIS) is created, which made it possible to systematize information of natural disasters in Šumadija area. Also, from the geographical aspect, the degree of vulnerability from natural disasters on this territory, with the goal of early warning possibilities and guidelines definition for mitigating the consequences.
PB  - Београд : Универзитет у Београду, Географски факултет
T1  - Географски аспекти природних непогода у Шумадији
T1  - Geographical aspects of natural disasters in Šumadija
SP  - 365 листова
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_1654
ER  - 

@phdthesis{
author = "Милановић Пешић, Ана",
year = "2015",
abstract = "Основни циљ истраживања у оквиру ове дисертације био је постављање научно релевантних, теоријско исправних и применљивих основа за утврђивање веза између појединих физичкогеографских фактора, антропогеног утицаја и природних непогода на територији Шумадије. Задаци истраживања су се, пре свега, односили на детерминисање најрелевантнијих физичкогеографских фактора који утичу на појаву природних непогода у Шумадији, утврђивање степена антропогеног утицаја, као и на испитивање узрочно-последичних веза између појединих природних непогода. Посебан део истраживања био је усмерен на процену вероватноће појављивања одређених природних непогода као и на њихову просторну дистрибуцију у Шумадији. 
С обзиром на комплексност и обим предмета истраживања, у раду је постојала потреба за применом одговарајућих основних, опште научних и посебних метода погодних за постављање полазних хипотеза, доказивање ставова и проверавање и доношење научних закључака. Такође, у овом раду се тежило и својеврсном доприносу методологији при чему су у фокусу били објективност, прецизност и практична примењивост добијених резултата. Научни значај и допринос истраживања огледао се у истицању географског аспекта проучавања природних непогода, како би се пронашли критеријуми за идентификовање природних непогода и у другим географским областима, али и у пројекцијама будућих екстремних дешавања. Допринос овог истраживања дат је систематизацијом, објашњењима и новим подацима о одређеним физичкогеографским својствима и природним непогодама на територији Шумадије. 
Географски аспект анализе настанка природних непогода у Шумадији подразумевао је разматрање физичкогеографског и антропогеног аспекта. Као резултат овог истраживања идентификовани су физичкогеографски фактори који су директно у функцији настанка природних непогода у Шумадији. То су: неотектонски покрети, геолошка грађа, рељеф (хипсометрија и нагиби терена), циркулација атмосфере, интензивне падавине и ерозија. 
С обзиром на перманентан пораст утицаја антропогеног фактора на елементе природне средине, многа научна и стручна истраживања природних непогода имају за циљ да утврде у којој су мери ове појаве у вези са антропогеним утицајима, а у којој су последица физичкогеографских фактора и њихових промена. Овим истраживањем утвђено је да на територији Шумадије у одређеној мери постоји антропогени утицај на промену услова у природној средини и генезу појединих природних непогода. Антропогени утицај испољава се како директно, тако и индиректно. Директни утицај огледа се у урбанизацији, односно изградњи насеља и инфраструктуре у клизним појасевима, чиме су се на многобројним локацијама активирала клизишта. Такође, резултати анализе климатских елемената за територију Шумадије у периоду 1961-2010. година указали су да је процес урбанизације утицао на топоклиму Београда, односно на настанак урбаног острва топлоте. Индиректно, антропогени утицај огледа се у изменама биогеографских својстава Шумадије, чиме је иницирана ерозија на око 74,5% од укупне површине истраживане територије. Ерозија је један од фактора настанка бујичних поплава и клизишта. Антропогеним активностима у сливовима река утицало се и на промене водних режима шумадијских водотока, што може утицати на настанак и размере поплаве. Један од примера је слив Колубаре. Међутим, важно је напоменути да физичкогеографски фактори имају већи утицај на настанак природних непогода у Шумадији у односу на антропогене активности. 
Према резултатима анализе, у Шумадији су са аспекта учесталости и потенцијалних последица најзначајније хидролошке непогоде (поплаве), а затим геофизичке непогоде (земљотреси и клизишта), климатске и метеоролошке непогоде (екстремне температуре ваздуха, снежне мећаве и олујно-градоносне непогоде). Индикативне плавне зоне налазе се у алувијалним равнима свих ободних река и свих већих шумадијских река. Статистичким анализама утврђено је да су од друге половине XX века до 2014. године највеће и најразорније поплаве у Шумадији забележене 1965, 1999. и 2014. године. Као тзв. историјска поплава може се означити поплава на Западној Морави 1965. године, када је код Јасике забележен протицај од 1 870 m3/s (повратни период 421 година). Стогодишње воде забележене су на појединим токовима током поплава 1965. и 2014. године. Иако нису чести, земљотреси су најразорнија природна непогода у Шумадији. Према степену потенцијалне сеизмичности, најугроженија је Великоморавска котлина, као и зоне у долини Груже и Лепенице, где се за повратни период од 95 година (са вероватноћом превазилажења 10% у 10 година) може очекивати земљотрес јачине до осам степени по EMS-98 скали. Појава клизишта на овој територији углавном је везана за терене изграђене од неогених седимената и за висински појас 200-300 m н.в. Међу климатским и метеоролошким непогодама у Шумадији се издвајају екстремне температуре ваздуха и олујно-градоносне непогоде. Екстремно високе температуре ваздуха израженије су у односу на екстремно ниске. Тако је апсолутно максимална температура ваздуха у Србији забележена у Смедеревској Паланци и износила је 44,9°C (24.07.2007.). Снажни удари ветра у Шумадији најчешћи су у кошавском подручју Подунавља у зимском периоду године. Током летњег периода олујни ветрови су везани за настанак природних непогода и ретко су изнад 17,2 m/s. Ова територија припада умерено сушном и умерено влажном региону, па је у односу на друге делове Србије мање угрожена од суше. Такође и угроженост од шумских пожара је мања у односу на друге делове Србије. 
На крају, као синтеза целокупног истраживања, урађен је географски информациони систем (ГИС), који је омогућио да се систематизују подаци о природним непогодама у Шумадији. Такође, са географског аспекта, утврђен је степен угрожености територије од природних непогода у циљу раног упозоравања и дефинисања смерница за ублажавање њихових последица., The main purpose of the research presented in this thesis is to establish scientifically relevant, theoretically correct and applicable bases for the evaluation of connection between physical geographic factors, anthropogenic impact and natural disasters on the Šumadija territory.
The tasks of the study are primarily related to identifying the most relevant physical geographic factors that influence the natural disasters occurrence in Šumadija area, determining the degree of anthropogenic influence, as well as the researching of causal connections between natural disasters. A special part of the research was aimed at assessment of the occurrence probabilities for certain natural disasters as well as their spatial distribution in Šumadija area.
Having in mind the complexity and the scope of the subject of research, it was necessary to apply appropriate basic, general scientific and special methods in order to define the initial hypotheses, prove the postulates, test and make scientific conclusions. Also, this thesis seeks to contribute to the methodology, while laying focus on objectivity, accuracy and practical applicability of the results. The scientific importance and contribution of this thesis was in the emphasis of the natural disasters study from the geographical aspects, in order to determine criteria for the natural disasters identification on other geographical areas, as well as in projections of future extreme occurrence. The contribution of this research consists of systematization, explanations and new data about specific physical geographic features and natural disasters on the Šumadija territory.
The geographical aspect of the analysis of the natural disasters occurrence in Šumadija area included consideration of the physical geographic and anthropogenic aspects. As a result of this research physical geographic factors were identified, which are directly involved in the natural disasters occurrence on Šumadija area. These are: neotectonic movements, geological structure, relief (hypsometry and terrain slope), the atmosphere circulation, intense precipitation and erosion.
Having in mind the permanent increase of the anthropogenic factors influence on the elements of the natural environment, many scientific and professional natural disasters researches aim to determine the degree of connections between these occurrences and anthropogenic impacts, as well as the relations between natural disasters and physical geographic factors and their changes. As a result of this research it was concluded that, to the certain extent, there is anthropogenic influence on changing conditions in the natural environment and the genesis of certain natural disasters in Šumadija. Anthropogenic influence is manifested both directly and indirectly. Direct impact is reflected in the urbanization and construction of settlements and infrastructure in the landslide belts, which cause landslides activations in many locations. Also, the results of the climate elements analysis for the Šumadija territory in 1961-2010 period has shown that the urbanization process influenced Belgrade local climate and the genesis of urban heat island. Indirectly, the anthropogenic influence is reflected in changes of the biogeographic features in Šumadija, which initiated erosion at about 74,5% of the total researched territory. Erosion is one of the factors of torrential floods and landslides genesis. Water regimes changes in Šumadija rivers, were affected by anthropogenic activities in the river basins which could influence flood occurrence and scale. One of the examples is the Kolubara river basin. However, it is important to note that physical geographic factors have a greater impact than anthropogenic activities on the natural disasters occurrences in Šumadija.
According to the analysis results, the most significant disasters in Šumadija area, by frequency and potential consequences, are hydrological disasters (floods), and after these, geophysical disasters (earthquakes and landslides), climate and meteorological disasters (extreme air temperatures, snowstorms, storms and hail). Indicative flood zones are located in the alluvial plains of border rivers and all other greater rivers in Šumadija area. According to the statistical analysis, it was concluded that in the period from the second half of the twentieth century to 2014, the biggest and most destructive floods in Šumadija were recorded in 1965, 1999 and 2014. So called historical flood, was the one on Zapadna Morava river basin in 1965, when discharge of 1 870 m3 /s (return period of 421 years) was recorded by Jasika hydrological station. The high level water with return period of 100 years was recorded on several rivers in Šumadija during floods in 1965 and 2014. Although they are not common, earthquakes are the most devastating natural disasters in Šumadija area. According to the potential seismicity degree, the most vulnerable is Velika Morava river basin and zones in the valley of Gruža and Lepenica, where an earthquake up to eight degrees by EMS-98 scale for the return period of 95 years (with overcoming probability of 10% in 10 years) could be expected. Landslides in this area are mainly related to the terrain of Neogene sediments and to 200-300 m altitude. Among climate and meteorological disasters in Šumadija the most significant are extreme air temperatures, storms and hail. It is important to note that the extremely high air temperatures are more frequent than extremely low air temperatures. As an example, absolute maximum air temperature of 44,9°C was recorded in Smederevska Palanka on 24.07.2007. Strong gusts in Šumadija area are most common in the Danube region, where košava occurs mainly in the winter period. During the summer period stormy winds are related to the natural disasters occurrence and rarely reach speed above 17.2 m/s. This territory belongs to moderately arid and moderately humid region, and it is less affected by drought in comparison to other parts of Serbia. Also, the vulnerability of forest fires is lower than in other parts of Serbia.
Finally, as an overall synthesis of this research, a geographic informational system (GIS) is created, which made it possible to systematize information of natural disasters in Šumadija area. Also, from the geographical aspect, the degree of vulnerability from natural disasters on this territory, with the goal of early warning possibilities and guidelines definition for mitigating the consequences.",
publisher = "Београд : Универзитет у Београду, Географски факултет",
title = "Географски аспекти природних непогода у Шумадији, Geographical aspects of natural disasters in Šumadija",
pages = "365 листова",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_1654"
}

Милановић Пешић, А.. (2015). Географски аспекти природних непогода у Шумадији. 
Београд : Универзитет у Београду, Географски факултет., 365 листова.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_1654

Милановић Пешић А. Географски аспекти природних непогода у Шумадији. 2015;:365 листова.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_1654 .

Милановић Пешић, Ана, "Географски аспекти природних непогода у Шумадији" (2015):365 листова,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_1654 .