Thermal environment and UV-B radiation indices in the Vojvodina region (Serbia)

Abstract

We considered thermal environment and UV-B radiation indices in the Vojvodina region, Serbia. We derived an empirical formula for estimating the daily sum of the UV-B from global radiation and used this formula to reconstruct the UV-B radiation pattern for 1981–2008. We describe the actual climate conditions for the period 1992−2008. In addition, we applied a statistical downscaling technique on ECHAM5 outputs under the A2 scenario to assess the 2040 climate. The results indicate that a warmer and drier climate in the Vojvodina region can be expected because of the following evidence: an increase in the mean annual temperature (8.6 to 12.3%) and in the frequency of hot days (29.4 to 50%); a decrease in the mean annual precipitation (8.1 to 14.2%) and in the frequency of cold days (11.8 to 27.8%); a higher increase in the mean temperature for the colder period (24.9%) than for the hotter one (6.7%); and a reduction in precipitation during the growing season (15.7%). We have analyzed the thermal environment for the period 1992 −2008 using the wind chill index and the heat index for the winter (December to February) and summer (June to August) periods. In all places, the heat index has a tendency for growth. We determined an increase in the daily UV-B dose in an amount of 3.7% per decade. Even though there is some evidence indicating ozone stabilization, there are no signs of a significant recovery of ozone layer thickness, so it can be expected that UV-B dose levels will remain high in the future.