Long-term erythemal ultraviolet radiation in Novi Sad (Serbia) reconstructed by neural network modelling
Samo za registrovane korisnike
2018
Autori
Malinovic-Milicevic, SlavicaVyklyuk, Yaroslav
Radovanovic, Milan M.
Petrovic, Marko D
Ostala autorstva
Anguilar, EnricCollins, William
Članak u časopisu (Objavljena verzija)
Metapodaci
Prikaz svih podataka o dokumentuApstrakt
In this article, we proposed a simple neural network (NN) technique for estimating
erythemal ultraviolet (UV) radiation in Novi Sad (Serbia) using available input
parameters. The technique implies the use of one of two models depending on the
availability of the input parameter: (a) NN model 1 (NNM1) which uses global
solar radiation, clearness index, cloudiness and air mass; and (b) NN model
2 (NNM2) which adds total ozone content (TOC) to the NNM1 inputs. The three
feed-forward NNs with different internal structures and back propagation learning
method for each NN model were used in modelling. The parallel calculation was
used for learning each NN. The results showed that the NNM1 provides satisfactory estimate (R = 0.975, MBE = −0.614%, MAPE = 12.580%, RMSE =
17.716%) and that additional use of TOC NNM2 considerably improves the
results (R = 0.982, MBE = −0.726%, MAPE = 10.161%, RMSE = 14.509%).
The performances of developed NNMs become significantly better if warm part o...f
the year is isolated (MAPE = 10.981 and 8.958; RMSE = 13.889 and 11.709, for
NNM1 and NNM2, respectively). Variations of reconstructed annual averages of
daily doses in the period 1949–2012 indicate ability of the technique to model the
relationship between erythemal UV radiation and the affecting atmospheric factors. The analysis showed that the increasing trend during the warm part of the
year in the period 1981–1996 was mainly caused by TOC, while the increase after
1996 was to a greater extent caused by cloudiness.
Ključne reči:
clearness index / erythemal UV radiation / global solar radiation / neural network model / reconstructionIzvor:
International Journal of Climatology, 2018, 38, 8, 3264-3272Izdavač:
- United Kingdom : John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Finansiranje / projekti:
- Geografija Srbije (RS-MESTD-Integrated and Interdisciplinary Research (IIR or III)-47007)
DOI: 10.1002/joc.5499
ISSN: 0899-8418 (Print); 1097-0088 (Electronic)
WoS: 000439793900005
Scopus: 2-s2.0-85044259514
Institucija/grupa
Географски институт „Јован Цвијић“ САНУ / Geographical Institute Jovan Cvijić SASATY - JOUR AU - Malinovic-Milicevic, Slavica AU - Vyklyuk, Yaroslav AU - Radovanovic, Milan M. AU - Petrovic, Marko D PY - 2018 UR - https://dais.sanu.ac.rs/123456789/12919 AB - In this article, we proposed a simple neural network (NN) technique for estimating erythemal ultraviolet (UV) radiation in Novi Sad (Serbia) using available input parameters. The technique implies the use of one of two models depending on the availability of the input parameter: (a) NN model 1 (NNM1) which uses global solar radiation, clearness index, cloudiness and air mass; and (b) NN model 2 (NNM2) which adds total ozone content (TOC) to the NNM1 inputs. The three feed-forward NNs with different internal structures and back propagation learning method for each NN model were used in modelling. The parallel calculation was used for learning each NN. The results showed that the NNM1 provides satisfactory estimate (R = 0.975, MBE = −0.614%, MAPE = 12.580%, RMSE = 17.716%) and that additional use of TOC NNM2 considerably improves the results (R = 0.982, MBE = −0.726%, MAPE = 10.161%, RMSE = 14.509%). The performances of developed NNMs become significantly better if warm part of the year is isolated (MAPE = 10.981 and 8.958; RMSE = 13.889 and 11.709, for NNM1 and NNM2, respectively). Variations of reconstructed annual averages of daily doses in the period 1949–2012 indicate ability of the technique to model the relationship between erythemal UV radiation and the affecting atmospheric factors. The analysis showed that the increasing trend during the warm part of the year in the period 1981–1996 was mainly caused by TOC, while the increase after 1996 was to a greater extent caused by cloudiness. PB - United Kingdom : John Wiley & Sons Ltd. T2 - International Journal of Climatology T1 - Long-term erythemal ultraviolet radiation in Novi Sad (Serbia) reconstructed by neural network modelling SP - 3264 EP - 3272 VL - 38 IS - 8 DO - 10.1002/joc.5499 UR - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_12919 ER -
@article{ author = "Malinovic-Milicevic, Slavica and Vyklyuk, Yaroslav and Radovanovic, Milan M. and Petrovic, Marko D", year = "2018", abstract = "In this article, we proposed a simple neural network (NN) technique for estimating erythemal ultraviolet (UV) radiation in Novi Sad (Serbia) using available input parameters. The technique implies the use of one of two models depending on the availability of the input parameter: (a) NN model 1 (NNM1) which uses global solar radiation, clearness index, cloudiness and air mass; and (b) NN model 2 (NNM2) which adds total ozone content (TOC) to the NNM1 inputs. The three feed-forward NNs with different internal structures and back propagation learning method for each NN model were used in modelling. The parallel calculation was used for learning each NN. The results showed that the NNM1 provides satisfactory estimate (R = 0.975, MBE = −0.614%, MAPE = 12.580%, RMSE = 17.716%) and that additional use of TOC NNM2 considerably improves the results (R = 0.982, MBE = −0.726%, MAPE = 10.161%, RMSE = 14.509%). The performances of developed NNMs become significantly better if warm part of the year is isolated (MAPE = 10.981 and 8.958; RMSE = 13.889 and 11.709, for NNM1 and NNM2, respectively). Variations of reconstructed annual averages of daily doses in the period 1949–2012 indicate ability of the technique to model the relationship between erythemal UV radiation and the affecting atmospheric factors. The analysis showed that the increasing trend during the warm part of the year in the period 1981–1996 was mainly caused by TOC, while the increase after 1996 was to a greater extent caused by cloudiness.", publisher = "United Kingdom : John Wiley & Sons Ltd.", journal = "International Journal of Climatology", title = "Long-term erythemal ultraviolet radiation in Novi Sad (Serbia) reconstructed by neural network modelling", pages = "3264-3272", volume = "38", number = "8", doi = "10.1002/joc.5499", url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_12919" }
Malinovic-Milicevic, S., Vyklyuk, Y., Radovanovic, M. M.,& Petrovic, M. D.. (2018). Long-term erythemal ultraviolet radiation in Novi Sad (Serbia) reconstructed by neural network modelling. in International Journal of Climatology United Kingdom : John Wiley & Sons Ltd.., 38(8), 3264-3272. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5499 https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_12919
Malinovic-Milicevic S, Vyklyuk Y, Radovanovic MM, Petrovic MD. Long-term erythemal ultraviolet radiation in Novi Sad (Serbia) reconstructed by neural network modelling. in International Journal of Climatology. 2018;38(8):3264-3272. doi:10.1002/joc.5499 https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_12919 .
Malinovic-Milicevic, Slavica, Vyklyuk, Yaroslav, Radovanovic, Milan M., Petrovic, Marko D, "Long-term erythemal ultraviolet radiation in Novi Sad (Serbia) reconstructed by neural network modelling" in International Journal of Climatology, 38, no. 8 (2018):3264-3272, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5499 ., https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_12919 .