Modelling of forest fires time evolution in the USA on the basis of long term variations and dynamics of the temperature of the solar wind protons
Аутори
Radovanović, Milan M.Vyklyuk, Yaroslav
Malinović-Milićević, Slavica B.
Jakovljević, Dejana M.
Pecelj, Milica R.
Чланак у часопису (Објављена верзија)
Метаподаци
Приказ свих података о документуАпстракт
The work examines the potential causative link between the flow of protons, i. e. temperature of the particles that are coming from the Sun and forest fires in the USA. For determination of the degree of randomness for time series of input (temperature of protons) and output parameters (number of forest fires), the R/S analysis is conducted. The analysis of fractal dimension provides us an opportunity to compare self-similar processes in the influx of protons and the time series of forest fires flashes. Therefore we developed and conducted the sensitivity analysis of model based on hybrid neural networks ANFIS. As the calculations showed, only 16% of the real forest flashes cannot be predicted by the model.
Кључне речи:
forest fires / temperature of protons / forecast / ANFIS models / USAИзвор:
Thermal Science, 2015, 19, 2, 437-444Издавач:
- Belgrade : Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences
Финансирање / пројекти:
- Географија Србије (RS-MESTD-Integrated and Interdisciplinary Research (IIR or III)-47007)
DOI: 10.2298/TSCI141103150R
ISSN: 0354-9836
WoS: 000369558800019
Scopus: 2-s2.0-84957810448
Институција/група
Географски институт „Јован Цвијић“ САНУ / Geographical Institute Jovan Cvijić SASATY - JOUR AU - Radovanović, Milan M. AU - Vyklyuk, Yaroslav AU - Malinović-Milićević, Slavica B. AU - Jakovljević, Dejana M. AU - Pecelj, Milica R. PY - 2015 UR - https://dais.sanu.ac.rs/123456789/13498 AB - The work examines the potential causative link between the flow of protons, i. e. temperature of the particles that are coming from the Sun and forest fires in the USA. For determination of the degree of randomness for time series of input (temperature of protons) and output parameters (number of forest fires), the R/S analysis is conducted. The analysis of fractal dimension provides us an opportunity to compare self-similar processes in the influx of protons and the time series of forest fires flashes. Therefore we developed and conducted the sensitivity analysis of model based on hybrid neural networks ANFIS. As the calculations showed, only 16% of the real forest flashes cannot be predicted by the model. PB - Belgrade : Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences T2 - Thermal Science T1 - Modelling of forest fires time evolution in the USA on the basis of long term variations and dynamics of the temperature of the solar wind protons SP - 437 EP - 444 VL - 19 IS - 2 DO - 10.2298/TSCI141103150R UR - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13498 ER -
@article{ author = "Radovanović, Milan M. and Vyklyuk, Yaroslav and Malinović-Milićević, Slavica B. and Jakovljević, Dejana M. and Pecelj, Milica R.", year = "2015", abstract = "The work examines the potential causative link between the flow of protons, i. e. temperature of the particles that are coming from the Sun and forest fires in the USA. For determination of the degree of randomness for time series of input (temperature of protons) and output parameters (number of forest fires), the R/S analysis is conducted. The analysis of fractal dimension provides us an opportunity to compare self-similar processes in the influx of protons and the time series of forest fires flashes. Therefore we developed and conducted the sensitivity analysis of model based on hybrid neural networks ANFIS. As the calculations showed, only 16% of the real forest flashes cannot be predicted by the model.", publisher = "Belgrade : Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences", journal = "Thermal Science", title = "Modelling of forest fires time evolution in the USA on the basis of long term variations and dynamics of the temperature of the solar wind protons", pages = "437-444", volume = "19", number = "2", doi = "10.2298/TSCI141103150R", url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13498" }
Radovanović, M. M., Vyklyuk, Y., Malinović-Milićević, S. B., Jakovljević, D. M.,& Pecelj, M. R.. (2015). Modelling of forest fires time evolution in the USA on the basis of long term variations and dynamics of the temperature of the solar wind protons. in Thermal Science Belgrade : Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences., 19(2), 437-444. https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI141103150R https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13498
Radovanović MM, Vyklyuk Y, Malinović-Milićević SB, Jakovljević DM, Pecelj MR. Modelling of forest fires time evolution in the USA on the basis of long term variations and dynamics of the temperature of the solar wind protons. in Thermal Science. 2015;19(2):437-444. doi:10.2298/TSCI141103150R https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13498 .
Radovanović, Milan M., Vyklyuk, Yaroslav, Malinović-Milićević, Slavica B., Jakovljević, Dejana M., Pecelj, Milica R., "Modelling of forest fires time evolution in the USA on the basis of long term variations and dynamics of the temperature of the solar wind protons" in Thermal Science, 19, no. 2 (2015):437-444, https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI141103150R ., https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_dais_13498 .